Hurricane Helene Update – Sept. 25, 2024, 2255z

Updated Sept. 25, 2024, 2255z

• Overview
• Update from the National Hurricane Center
• Airport & Equipment Information
• Route Information
• Operational Resources
• NBAA’s HERO Database

Overview

Hurricane Helene continues to amass more strength and multiple bands of convection are already overtaking Florida and influencing traffic flows. The last reported location was about 460 miles southwest of Tampa, FL, but it is projected to pick up pace as it moves northeast into the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and into the Big Bend area of Florida tomorrow. Rapid intensification is expected to transform the hurricane into Category 3 or 4 hurricane by the time it reaches the mainland on Thursday afternoon/evening.

Among the numerous looming threats is catastrophic storm surge near the Big Bend coast with inundation approaching 20 feet above ground level, but the remainder of the west coast of the state will face life-threatening storm surge as well. With the eyewall tracking northeast and pushing closer to Florida, hurricane-force winds will be felt well inland that will likely persist after landfall as it reaches Georgia. There have already been heavy downpours of rain and dangerous thunderstorms permeating Florida, bringing the potential for flash, urban and river flooding with potential landslides and tornadoes across the Southeast US.

Airport closures throughout the next couple of days will be common. Operators should check NOTAMs frequently to ascertain the current status of fields in the region. With strong, gusty winds and high-top thunderstorms bombarding Florida, airspace flow programs, ground stops and ground delay programs will be used as necessary as ATC loses safe and viable airspace for traffic. The ARTCC facilities anticipate heavy inland thunderstorm saturation, but both ZJX and ZMA hope to retain use of the ARs, Atlantic Y-Routes and deepwater L routes to keep traffic flowing in some capacity even as the terminals in the area become unavailable.

Update from the National Hurricane Center

According to the National Hurricane Center’s Advisory #10, issued at 2100z:

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 86.6 West. Helene is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward or north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next 36 hours. On the forecast track, Helene will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Thursday and cross the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening. After landfall, Helene is expected to turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening. Weakening is expected after landfall, but Helene’s fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).

Airport & Equipment Information

Protective Shutdowns

Gulf of Mexico:

Gulf of Mexico, MX (DSF) GBTS

Florida:

Tampa, FL (VDF); RWY 23 (VDF) LOC/GS
Tampa, FL (TPA); RWY 19R (JRT) LOC
Tampa, FL (TPA) RWY 01R (TWJ) LOC
Tampa, FL (TPA) RWY 19L (TPA) LOC/GS
Tampa, FL (TPA) RWY 01L (AMP) LOC/GS
Tampa, FL (TPA) ASR
Gainesville, FL (GNV) ASR

Georgia:

Waycross, GA (AYS) MALSR

Unscheduled System Failures

Florida:

Key West, FL (EYW) RWY 27 (EYWA) PAPI

Current / Upcoming Airport Closures:

X01/SPG/F47/PIE/TLH/VDF/TPF/PCM/TPA/BOW

This list will change rapidly as the storm draws closer.

Route Information

L214/L333/L465/M215/M219/M580/A766/A770 are closed within Houston ARTCC until at least 0030z, but continual extension and further route closures are anticipated.

Operational Resources

• National Hurricane Center
• FAA OIS page
• CADENA OIS page
• FAA Advisory Database
• FAA Current Reroutes
• FAA NOTAM Search

NBAA’s HERO Database

The NBAA Humanitarian Emergency Response Operator (HERO) Database is a list of people in the business aviation community who are part of disaster-response mobilization efforts. In the aftermath of major crises, basic information from the database is provided to organizations coordinating relief efforts. Learn more and register.