On Eve of NBAA-BACE, Honeywell Forecasts 7,600 New Business Jet Deliveries in Next Decade
Oct. 21, 2019
Honeywell is forecasting up to 7,600 new business jet deliveries worth $248 billion from 2020-2029, the company announced ahead of the opening of business aviation’s biggest event of the year – the NBAA Business Aviation Convention & Exhibition (NBAA-BACE).
While that’s down 1 to 2 percentage points from the 2018 10-year forecast, purchase plans for used jets are significantly higher in this year’s survey. Operators worldwide indicated that 32% of their fleet is expected to be replaced or expanded by used jets over the next five years, up 8 percentage points compared with survey results from 2018.
Key findings in the outlook include:
- Operators plan to make new jet purchases equivalent to about 17% of their fleets over the next five years as replacements or additions to their current fleet, a decrease of 3 percentage points compared with 2018 survey results.
- Of the total purchase plans for new business jets over the next 5 years, 35% are expected to occur in the first two years of the survey, with 57% of purchase plans realized by year three. This is 5 percentage points higher than last year’s survey.
- Operators continue to focus on larger-cabin aircraft classes, from large cabin through ultralong-range aircraft, which are expected to account for more than 71% of all expenditures of new business jets in the next five years.
“Production ramp up on many new business jet platforms are expected to lead to a 7% increase in deliveries in 2020, following a strong projected growth in 2019 over 2018 aircraft deliveries,” said Heath Patrick, president, Americas Aftermarket, Honeywell Aerospace. “We are confident that these new and innovative aircraft models will support solid growth in the short term and have a continuing impact on new business jet purchases in the midterm and long term.”
Honeywell’s global outlook is based on multiple sources, including interviews with over 1,500 nonfractional business jet operators worldwide and complete results are broken down by region.
Breakdown by Region
- North America – Compared with last year, new aircraft acquisition plans in North America are slightly lower.
- Europe – Operators are facing a slow economic growth environment and the uncertain effects of Brexit, and new jet purchase plans decreased in this year’s survey.
- Latin America – Purchase plans are stable in the region and are lower by only 1 percentage point when compared with last year’s results.
- Asia Pacific – Despite geopolitical and commercial tensions, purchase plans are higher in the region, up by 3 percentage points from last year.
- Middle East and Africa – Lower purchase plans were reported, impacted by political tensions and ongoing conflicts in the region.
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