NBAA Thought Leadership Webinar: Redefining Certainty in an Era of Constant Change

Feb. 12, 2026

Uncertainty has traditionally impacted business aviation sales, with buyers and sellers waiting for economic or geopolitical stability before committing to a transaction.

That all changed during the COVID-19 pandemic, but at the time this shift was expected to be temporary. Yet, as industry experts discussed in the recent NBAA Thought Leadership webinar “Redefining Certainty in an Era of Constant Change,” business aviation continues to surge years after the formal end of the pandemic and despite frequent shifts in policy, global events and broader economic uncertainty.

Moderated by Jay Mesinger of webinar sponsor Mesinger Jet Sales, the panel was bullish on 2025 sales and on continued momentum this year.

“The fourth quarter was almost reminiscent of the peak COVID-19 period. In some models, you’re talking about 1 or 2% inventory being available,” said Steve Varsano, founder and president of The Jet Business.

This strong demand has continued into 2026, Varsano added. “The first quarter you usually see a little bit of a slowdown, but going into this first quarter, we see that carrying on just as we did at the end of 2025, which is a little bit surprising.”

While some transactions have closed above the asking price, Varsano also said those situations are concentrated in specific models and age ranges, with the super-midsize segment at the “sweet spot” and new, long-haul aircraft increasingly difficult for buyers to find.

“If you want something less than five years old, good luck,” he said. “But that doesn’t mean every airplane is going for over asking.”

For Sheila Kahyaoglu, managing director at New York-based investment banking and capital markets firm Jefferies, this trend makes sense. “Whether you like it or not, there is one thing the U.S. administration is certain on: it’s very bullish on making the stock market and U.S. economy work. That in itself brings certainty,” she explained.

That certainty has also fueled a recent flurry of initial public offerings (IPOs) in the U.S., which could, in part, be sustaining current demand for business aircraft sales.

“When IPO activity picks up, that’s often when you see new entrants into business aviation,” Kahyaoglu said. “It’s typically the founder, the executive or the entrepreneur who has just had a liquidity event and is now evaluating how they want to travel.”

That influx of new capital is increasingly associated with younger buyers, a shift Varsano said is reshaping how people enter the market. “The average age of a CEO in the old days was late 60s; now it’s late 40s. And with the tech crowd, we are seeing buyers in their 30s, even 20s,” he noted.

This shift has also changed buying patterns, with purchasers eschewing the typical progression from smaller aircraft to larger airframes and instead often starting with long-range or large-cabin models. “In the old days, you started with a single-engine and worked your way up. Today, 30% of our buyers are first-time buyers, and right out of the gate, they go straight to the top of the food chain,” said Varsano.

This younger demographic is also better informed about the buying process and ownership needs, often through social media and increasingly through artificial intelligence. “AI is surprising me a little bit in terms of the speed at which it’s being adopted in our industry and in all sectors,” said Rolland Vincent, founder and president of Rolland Vincent Associates. “We have to be careful how we use it, and it needs to be trained, but in a service industry like ours, AI is going to be disruptive.”

For Roland, what is typically considered uncertainty is a clear certainty for business aviation. “Last year in the U.S., there was 13% growth in flight activity from the fractional programs, and this is now year five or year six after COVID. This is impressive. Charter is also close to a 10% increase, and all of this comes on top of the growth we’ve seen since COVID-19.”

One segment that hasn’t grown, though, is Part 91, which has been relatively flat for several years while shared and managed fleets continued to expand, Vincent noted, adding that is likely attributed to the influx of new entrants not wanting to build their own flight departments.

All this is good for both new and pre-owned aircraft sales under 15 years, as well as for the service industries, Vincent continued, especially as supply chains become more robust.

While the panelists concurred that this market buoyancy is expected to continue, Varsano had one red flag: the increasing cost of operating business aircraft.

“Outside of the U.S., it is becoming a lot more expensive to fly corporate airplanes. All costs are going up: service centers, the supply chain, pilot salaries, everything is going up,” he said. “So, there might be a point where people start to concern themselves with operational costs.”