Hurricane Marco and Tropical Storm Laura Update – Aug. 23, 2200z

Updated Aug. 23, 2020 – 1300z

• Overview
• Marco – Update from the National Hurricane Center
• Laura – Update from the National Hurricane Center
• Airport & Equipment Information
• Route Information
• Operational Resources
• NBAA’s HERO Database

Overview

As of 2100z, the National Hurricane Center has advised there has been a shift in the track guidance beyond Monday morning for Hurricane Marco. The majority of their forecast models now keep Marco slightly offshore in the northern Gulf coast, tarrying a little longer rather than moving immediately inland over Louisiana Monday afternoon. The earlier forecast tracks had Marco near the Louisiana coast Monday afternoon, and moving near or over the coast through Tuesday, but if the trend in the models are correct, some of the impacts over portions of the north-central Gulf coast could be reduced. NBAA Air Traffic Services will closely monitor this and provide updates to this track.

Tropical Storm Laura will move along the southern coast of Cuba tonight and Monday, and move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Laura is expected to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday with hazardous conditions continuing across portions of Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas and Cuba through Monday. Laura is forecast to strengthen to hurricane status over the Gulf of Mexico and there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind and rainfall impacts along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be affected by Marco.

Marco – Update from the National Hurricane Center

According to the National Hurricane Center’s Advisory #14, issued at 2100z:

At 5 p.m. EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marco was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 87.8 West. Marco is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), a turn to the northwest is expected later tonight followed by a turn to the west-northwest by Monday night. On the forecast track, Marco will be near the Louisiana coast Monday afternoon, and move near or over the coast through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next 24 hour. Gradual weakening is expected thereafter, and Marco could become a remnant low by Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).

Laura – Update from the National Hurricane Center

According to the National Hurricane Center’s Advisory #16, issued at 2100z:

At 5 p.m. EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 75.2 West. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is forcast by Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over southern coast Cuba tonight and Monday, and move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Laura is expected to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast while Laura moves near the southern coast of Cuba tonight. However, strengthening is forecast after the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and Laura is forecast to become a hurricane late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

Airport & Equipment Information

The following is a list of known airport closures from the FAA OIS page:

• MBGT – Closed – expect re-opening 8/24 at 1000z
• MBPV – Closed – expect re-opening 8/24 at 1000z

The Atlantis, LA (QA8) remote communications air/ground (RCAG) frequencies used by Houston (ZHU) Center are out of service as the oil platform hosting that station has been evacuated.

Numerous facilities across Puerto Rico are operating on generator power, due to unstable commercial power at this time.

Route Information

Gulf Q and Y route closures are probable. There are no published required routes just yet but are expected as oceanic routes close and traffic begins to occupy the inland airways.

Operational Resources

• National Hurricane Center
• FAA OIS page
• CADENA OIS page
• FAA Advisory Database
• FAA Current Reroutes
• FAA NOTAM Search

NBAA’s HERO Database

The NBAA Humanitarian Emergency Response Operator (HERO) Database is a list of people in the business aviation community who are part of disaster-response mobilization efforts. In the aftermath of major crises, basic information from the database is provided to organizations coordinating relief efforts. Learn more and register.